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MARA — MARA Holdings: the biggest bitcoin miner, with the AI lease still unsigned
MARA is a bitcoin miner hoarding power and land for an AI/HPC pivot. It has the scale and the balance-sheet repair — what it does not yet have is a signed AI tenant.
01The 30-second read
Fast read
MARA is the largest public bitcoin miner by hashrate, running 70.3 EH/s energized across 19 data centers on four continents and a power portfolio of roughly 1.9 GW. It is spending that scale into an AI/HPC pivot: a $1.5B deal for Long Ridge Energy & Power (a 505 MW gas plant in Ohio on 1,600+ acres) and a ~2 GW powered-land site in Matagorda County, Texas are meant to take the portfolio to ~4.8 GW.
What is missing is the demand side. As of the Q2 2026 call, MARA had not signed a single AI/HPC lease; management described itself as in a “holding pattern” at the Ohio campus until Long Ridge closes, and targets at least two leases by end-2026. The core business is also shrinking — Q2 revenue fell 27% to $174.9M and the quarter produced a $611.3M net loss and −$360.9M adjusted EBITDA as bitcoin averaged ~28% lower.
The honest read: MARA today is a leveraged bitcoin miner that has bought real power infrastructure for a future AI business, not an AI infrastructure company with contracted revenue. Peers like Riot have already signed leases; MARA has signed power. The pivot is real but earlier-stage.
02The bull case, briefly
Power is the scarce input, and MARA is buying it
- Long Ridge Energy (announced Apr 30, 2026): ~$1.5B for a 505 MW combined-cycle gas plant plus 1,600+ contiguous acres in PJM, with ~$144M of annualized adjusted EBITDA and all-in operating costs under $15/MWh.
- Planned 200 MW AI/critical-IT build at the site with line of sight to up to 600 gross MW; construction targeted for H1 2027, initial capacity mid-2028.
- A ~2 GW powered-land site in Matagorda County, Texas plus other pending deals are meant to lift the portfolio to ~4.8 GW.
- Starwood Digital Ventures partnership (Feb 26, 2026) gives MARA a development partner for hyperscale/AI-capable data centers.
03The bear case, briefly
Still a bitcoin miner — with no AI lease to point to
- No signed AI/HPC lease. On the Q2 call management said Hannibal is in a “holding pattern” on a lease until Long Ridge closes, and targets at least two leases by end-2026 (Needham note) — a target, not a contract.
- The core is shrinking. Q2 revenue −27% YoY to $174.9M, net loss $611.3M, adjusted EBITDA −$360.9M (from +$1.2B a year earlier) as bitcoin prices fell ~28%.
- The treasury is being spent. Bitcoin holdings fell to 35,577 BTC (−29% YoY); MARA sold ~$1.6B of bitcoin in H1 2026 to repay debt and fund the pivot.
- The AI revenue is years away. Long Ridge is a 1H 2027 construction start with service in mid-2028 — there is no near-term AI cash flow to offset a weak mining market.
04Key numbers
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 revenue | $174.9M | −27% YoY (vs $238.5M) |
| Q2 net loss | −$611.3M | −$1.60/share; digital-asset marks |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA | −$360.9M | vs +$1.2B in Q2 2025 |
| Energized hashrate | 70.3 EH/s | +22% YoY (from 57.4 EH/s) |
| Q2 bitcoin produced | 2,422 BTC | +3% YoY |
| Bitcoin held | 35,577 BTC | ~$2.1B at Jun 30; −29% YoY |
| Bitcoin sold (H1 2026) | ~$1.6B | avg ~$70,631/BTC; to cut debt & fund pivot |
| Power portfolio | ~1.9 GW → ~4.8 GW | Current → on pending deal close |
| Long Ridge | 505 MW · $1.5B | ~$144M annualized adj EBITDA |
| Cash (Jun 30) | ~$421M | Notes payable ~$2.27B; LOC $150M |
| 2026 revenue (est.) | ~$700.8M | −22.7% YoY (7 analysts) |
| Consensus | Buy | 14 analysts; avg target $17.99 |
Sources & method
- MARA Q2 2026 shareholder letter and Form 10-Q (Aug 6, 2026): revenue $174.9M (vs $238.5M), net loss $611.3M (−$1.60/share), adjusted EBITDA −$360.9M, energized hashrate 70.3 EH/s (+22%), 2,422 BTC produced, 35,577 BTC held (~$2.08B fair value), cash $421.3M, notes payable ~$2.27B, line of credit $150M, 19 data centers / ~1.9 GW
- MARA Q2 2026 earnings call (Aug 6, 2026): Long Ridge ~$144M annualized adjusted EBITDA and ~70% of output under long-term contracts; Hannibal “holding pattern” on a lease until Long Ridge closes; power portfolio to ~4.8 GW on completion of pending transactions; ~2 GW powered-land site in Matagorda County, TX
- MARA press release, “Agreement to Acquire Long Ridge Energy & Power” (Apr 30, 2026): ~$1.5B transaction incl. ≥$785M assumed debt (Barclays backstop), 505 MW CCGT + 1,600+ acres, +65% owned capacity, 200 MW initial AI build (service mid-2028), up to 600 gross MW potential
- MARA–Starwood Digital Ventures partnership announcement (Feb 26, 2026) (company release; CoinDesk)
- Bitcoin sales: H1 2026 sales ~$1.6B at avg ~$70,631/BTC per the Aug 6 10-Q; holdings down 29% YoY (Blockspace; company filings)
- Analyst consensus: 14 analysts via S&P Global — Buy, average target $17.99 (range $6–$30); H.C. Wainwright initiated Buy, $20 PT (Sep 11, 2026) (stockanalysis.com)
- Market data: price $13.24 (Sep 18, 2026 close, +13.75%), market cap ~$5.1B, 52-week range $6.66–$23.45, shares ~386.3M (Robinhood; stockanalysis.com; company 10-Q share count of 386,299,297 as of Jul 30, 2026)
- Long-ridge debt assumption and FTAI Infrastructure sale (company release; Yahoo Finance; Data Center Dynamics)
- Reported, unverified: a ~$785M Barclays bridge for Long Ridge and various timing figures for a separate ~$600M milestone-based power purchase (secondary trade press)
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